Standoff in Ukraine

The allure of the West has helped shape Russian history since Peter the Great three centuries ago. Now it’s testing even older bonds with its neighbor, Ukraine. President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in a violent rebellion as the country’s pro-European western provinces set their sights on a decisive break from the nation’s Soviet past. In response, Russia seized control of the Crimean peninsula, home to itslargest naval base outside its borders, triggering the tensest standoff with the West since the end of the Cold War.

The Situation

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he had a duty to defend ethnic Russians in Ukraine, who have been unnerved by the departure of Yanukovych last month. Ukraine’s new government labeled the moves an act of aggression as Russian forces surrounded military installations in Crimea, where a newly appointed administration has called a March 16 vote on joining Russia. The U.S. began imposing sanctions against Russia as world leaders urged Putin to step back. The new prime minister in Kiev says the country faces financial collapse and has reached out to the International Monetary Fund for aid. The country must replace a $15 billion bailout and natural gas discount from Russia, which has opposed closer ties between Ukraine and the European Union. Yanukovych, whose victory in a rigged election 10 years ago led to the pro-democracy Orange Revolution, snubbed a free-trade pact with the EU last year, prompting protesters to pitch camp in central Kiev in November to demand a change of course. The conflict escalated into street battles in February, leaving at least 100 people dead. A peace agreement was brokered by EU foreign ministers as politicians warned that the bloodshed might grow into the first civil war in Europe since the breakup of Yugoslavia.

The Background

Ukraine and Russia trace their roots to the ninth century, when a collection of tribes founded Kievan Rus around modern-day Kiev. Ukraine struggled to carve out a national identity, falling under Moscow’s sway through most of the Russian and Soviet empires. More recently the two neighbors have been bound together by energy: Ukrainian pipelines provide transit for Russian natural gas en route to European markets and Russia supplies half of its neighbor’s own gas needs. While the Soviet legacy still looms large, Ukraine is divided. The country of 45 million is split between Russian-speaking regions in the east and the Ukrainian-speaking provinces of the west near the border with Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. The country’s trade reflects that fault line, with about a quarter of exports shipped to the EU and the same amount to Russia.

The Argument

The protesters fought to redefine Ukraine as a European country and say aligning its future with the EU will strengthen institutions, bolster democracy and stem a slide back toward the days of Soviet rule. They distrusted Yanukovych, who said EU integration would decimate the economy by triggering Russian trade restrictions and exposing Ukrainian industry to ruinous competition. His departure is a blow to Russia, as Putin wanted Ukraine to join a trade partnership of former Soviet states to rival the EU. Russia’s Black Sea fleet is based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. The peninsula was part of Russia until 1954.