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Draghi hails 'great progress' after banking union deal

Written By Savoeun on Sunday 23 March 2014 | 07:45

European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi hailed the "great progress" made "for a better banking union" on Thursday, after the European Union agreed to complete the region's banking union.
Negotiators agreed to create a new agency to shut euro zone banks that are too weak to survive and a fund to help cover the costs, according to a draft agreement.
All-night talks ended a stand-off between the European Parliament and euro zone countries over the new scheme, completing the second leg of banking union after supervision by the ECB.
"It's a very good agreement, its progress...We need a mechanism which is properly funded and the agreement actually improves on the pre-existing funding, and it's also a clear reference to enhanced borrowing capacity from the market by the fund," Draghi told CNBC on Thursday.
"The decision-making mechanism is also swifter and more operational so it's an improvement on that front too."
Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg via Getty Images
Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB)
The details of the compromise are outlined in a draft agreement and were confirmed by people involved in the talks. 
Under the compromise reached, a fund made up by levies on banks will be built up over eight years, rather than 10 as originally envisaged. It will also be possible for countries to share 40 percent of the fund from its first year.
The deal also envisages giving the European Central Bank the primary role in triggering the closure of a bank, making it harder for the new 'resolution' agency to do so and limiting the scope for country ministers to challenge such a move.
07:45 | 0 comments

Draghi hails 'great progress' after banking union deal

European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi hailed the "great progress" made "for a better banking union" on Thursday, after the European Union agreed to complete the region's banking union.
Negotiators agreed to create a new agency to shut euro zone banks that are too weak to survive and a fund to help cover the costs, according to a draft agreement.
All-night talks ended a stand-off between the European Parliament and euro zone countries over the new scheme, completing the second leg of banking union after supervision by the ECB.
"It's a very good agreement, its progress...We need a mechanism which is properly funded and the agreement actually improves on the pre-existing funding, and it's also a clear reference to enhanced borrowing capacity from the market by the fund," Draghi told CNBC on Thursday.
"The decision-making mechanism is also swifter and more operational so it's an improvement on that front too."
Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg via Getty Images
Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB)
The details of the compromise are outlined in a draft agreement and were confirmed by people involved in the talks. 
Under the compromise reached, a fund made up by levies on banks will be built up over eight years, rather than 10 as originally envisaged. It will also be possible for countries to share 40 percent of the fund from its first year.
The deal also envisages giving the European Central Bank the primary role in triggering the closure of a bank, making it harder for the new 'resolution' agency to do so and limiting the scope for country ministers to challenge such a move.
07:45 | 0 comments

Aussie dollar resilience: Here today, gone tomorrow?

The Australian dollar has remained surprisingly stable this week amid volatile headlines from China and declining commodity prices but analysts are divided over whether this stability will last.
Australian assets are particularly vulnerable to economic swings in China– its largest trading partner – but fears over the strain on Beijing's financial system following two reports of corporate debt defaults and a tumbling yuan have yet to take their toll on the Australian dollar.
Furthermore, copper prices were on track to close out the week not far from three-and-a-half year lows. Exports of the metal bring in about $6 billion a year for Australia, making it a key commodity export with China representing one of the metal's top consumers.
The Aussie has managed to trade above 90 U.S. cents for a seventh straight session, rising to a three-month peak of $0.9137 on Wednesday.
"I don't expect anything below 7 percent for Chinese [gross domestic product] growth and I think that in terms of commodity prices, Australia doesn't have much to worry about, so 90 [cents per dollar] is a fair price," Michael Woolfolk, managing director and senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box."
"We're still several steps back now from our worst case scenarios in regards to growth expectations for the U.S. and China, so things look like they will improve from a couple weeks ago, which will be positive for the Aussie dollar," he continued.
But not everyone is as positive.
"I still think the China story is going to overshadow the Australian dollar. That story is still unfolding, there are a lot more chapters to be written and they may not have a happy ending. That could dampen any enthusiasm for the Aussie going forward," Michael Every head of financial markets Rabobank in Hong Kong told CNBC on Thursday.
Hamish Pepper, forex strategist, Asia Pacific at Barclays, also remains bearish, citing a target of 88 U.S. cents in the next three months.
07:32 | 0 comments

Aussie dollar resilience: Here today, gone tomorrow?

The Australian dollar has remained surprisingly stable this week amid volatile headlines from China and declining commodity prices but analysts are divided over whether this stability will last.
Australian assets are particularly vulnerable to economic swings in China– its largest trading partner – but fears over the strain on Beijing's financial system following two reports of corporate debt defaults and a tumbling yuan have yet to take their toll on the Australian dollar.
Furthermore, copper prices were on track to close out the week not far from three-and-a-half year lows. Exports of the metal bring in about $6 billion a year for Australia, making it a key commodity export with China representing one of the metal's top consumers.
The Aussie has managed to trade above 90 U.S. cents for a seventh straight session, rising to a three-month peak of $0.9137 on Wednesday.
"I don't expect anything below 7 percent for Chinese [gross domestic product] growth and I think that in terms of commodity prices, Australia doesn't have much to worry about, so 90 [cents per dollar] is a fair price," Michael Woolfolk, managing director and senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box."
"We're still several steps back now from our worst case scenarios in regards to growth expectations for the U.S. and China, so things look like they will improve from a couple weeks ago, which will be positive for the Aussie dollar," he continued.
But not everyone is as positive.
"I still think the China story is going to overshadow the Australian dollar. That story is still unfolding, there are a lot more chapters to be written and they may not have a happy ending. That could dampen any enthusiasm for the Aussie going forward," Michael Every head of financial markets Rabobank in Hong Kong told CNBC on Thursday.
Hamish Pepper, forex strategist, Asia Pacific at Barclays, also remains bearish, citing a target of 88 U.S. cents in the next three months.
07:32 | 0 comments

Ukraine crisis gives new impetus to EU-U.S. trade talks, U.S. says

Russia's annexation of Crimea underlines the need for the United States and the European Union to deepen their economic ties via an ambitious trade deal that would also allow Europe to import U.S. gas, Washington's top trade official said on Saturday.
Days before U.S. President Barack Obama and EU officials hold a summit in Brussels, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said the rationale "could never be stronger" for a U.S.-EU free-trade pact, despite growing public hostility to it.
"Right now, as we look around the world, there is a powerful reason for Europe and the United States to come together to demonstrate that they can take their relationship to a new level," Froman told reporters.
"Recent developments just underscore the importance of the transatlantic relationship. "From both a strategic and economic perspective, the rationale for the T-TIP could never be stronger," he said, referring to the proposed accord's official name, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.
Getty Images
President Barack Obama gives a statement on the situation in the Ukraine in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on March 17, 2014 in Washington, DC.
Brussels and Washington say a trade pact encompassing almost half the world's economy could generate $100 billion in additional economic output a year on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as creating a market of 800 million consumers.
But since talks were launched eight months ago, reports of U.S. spying in Europe and accusations that an accord would pander to big companies have combined to erode public support.
Moscow's seizure of the Crimea region from Ukraine and Europe's reliance on Russian energy have focused minds across Europe about the need for stronger ties with the United States, while European Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht warned that Russia was no longer a reliable partner.
"We should have a very clear idea of what Russia is doing by annexing Crimea. It doesn't have a place in normal international relations," De Gucht later told a conference alongside Froman.
"Do we have to swallow that? I think there is a price for that and I think we should be very clear, the EU and the United States together, that they (Russia) simply cannot do this," he said, although he declined to say if he backed a trade embargo.
Rethinking relations with Moscow
EU leaders dedicated a summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to rethinking relations with Moscow and accelerating their quest to reduce the bloc's reliance on Russian oil and gas, an area where the United States can play a role.
Froman laid out how companies could export U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) in tankers to Europe, as France, Germany and Britain seek, benefiting from the U.S. shale gas revolution.
Under U.S. rules, the Department of Energy must issue licenses to exporting companies, but license approval becomes much easier under a free-trade agreement, or FTA.
"Clearly, when the T-TIP is done, assuming it is done, there will be an FTA relationship with the European Union," he said.
Asia is for now a more lucrative export market for U.S. liquefied natural gas, but Froman said it was also up to European companies to decide where gas goes, and that exports did not depend on a transatlantic trade deal.
"Even right now, there have been four or five licenses approved for export to non-FTA countries. There are several European companies who are the contractors," he said, naming France's Total and GDF Suez.
"Where that gas goes is up to them. Conceivably, European governments have an interest in them bringing that gas to Europe," Froman said.
The Week That Was: Russia annexes Crimea
CNBC's Tyler Mathisen looks back at the week's top business and financial stories. Markets stabilize following Russia's annexation of Crimea. Janet Yellen scared the markets a bit, hinting the Fed could raise interest rates next spring. And GM announced several new recalls.
The European Union's top two officials, Herman Van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso, are expected to press Obama on the issue of energy on Wednesday when they meet in Brussels.
De Gucht said it was in the United States' interest that Europe should become less reliant on energy from Russia. "That's why I think we should have an ambitious chapter on energy in the T-TIP," he said, referring to EU demands for a clear framework setting out U.S. commitments on gas exports.
Beyond Ukraine, other difficult issues include how to open up to each other's markets, removing barriers to business and customs duties that cost companies billions of dollars each year, particularly automakers such as Ford, General Motors and Volkswagen.
Washington and Brussels are at odds over an initial exchange of offers to open up markets and cut tariffs, with each saying the other has not been ambitious enough.
"We reaffirm that the goal of negotiations should be elimination of all tariffs. We would welcome Europe reaffirming that goal," Froman said.
07:10 | 0 comments

Ukraine crisis gives new impetus to EU-U.S. trade talks, U.S. says

Russia's annexation of Crimea underlines the need for the United States and the European Union to deepen their economic ties via an ambitious trade deal that would also allow Europe to import U.S. gas, Washington's top trade official said on Saturday.
Days before U.S. President Barack Obama and EU officials hold a summit in Brussels, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said the rationale "could never be stronger" for a U.S.-EU free-trade pact, despite growing public hostility to it.
"Right now, as we look around the world, there is a powerful reason for Europe and the United States to come together to demonstrate that they can take their relationship to a new level," Froman told reporters.
"Recent developments just underscore the importance of the transatlantic relationship. "From both a strategic and economic perspective, the rationale for the T-TIP could never be stronger," he said, referring to the proposed accord's official name, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.
Getty Images
President Barack Obama gives a statement on the situation in the Ukraine in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on March 17, 2014 in Washington, DC.
Brussels and Washington say a trade pact encompassing almost half the world's economy could generate $100 billion in additional economic output a year on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as creating a market of 800 million consumers.
But since talks were launched eight months ago, reports of U.S. spying in Europe and accusations that an accord would pander to big companies have combined to erode public support.
Moscow's seizure of the Crimea region from Ukraine and Europe's reliance on Russian energy have focused minds across Europe about the need for stronger ties with the United States, while European Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht warned that Russia was no longer a reliable partner.
"We should have a very clear idea of what Russia is doing by annexing Crimea. It doesn't have a place in normal international relations," De Gucht later told a conference alongside Froman.
"Do we have to swallow that? I think there is a price for that and I think we should be very clear, the EU and the United States together, that they (Russia) simply cannot do this," he said, although he declined to say if he backed a trade embargo.
Rethinking relations with Moscow
EU leaders dedicated a summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to rethinking relations with Moscow and accelerating their quest to reduce the bloc's reliance on Russian oil and gas, an area where the United States can play a role.
Froman laid out how companies could export U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) in tankers to Europe, as France, Germany and Britain seek, benefiting from the U.S. shale gas revolution.
Under U.S. rules, the Department of Energy must issue licenses to exporting companies, but license approval becomes much easier under a free-trade agreement, or FTA.
"Clearly, when the T-TIP is done, assuming it is done, there will be an FTA relationship with the European Union," he said.
Asia is for now a more lucrative export market for U.S. liquefied natural gas, but Froman said it was also up to European companies to decide where gas goes, and that exports did not depend on a transatlantic trade deal.
"Even right now, there have been four or five licenses approved for export to non-FTA countries. There are several European companies who are the contractors," he said, naming France's Total and GDF Suez.
"Where that gas goes is up to them. Conceivably, European governments have an interest in them bringing that gas to Europe," Froman said.
The Week That Was: Russia annexes Crimea
CNBC's Tyler Mathisen looks back at the week's top business and financial stories. Markets stabilize following Russia's annexation of Crimea. Janet Yellen scared the markets a bit, hinting the Fed could raise interest rates next spring. And GM announced several new recalls.
The European Union's top two officials, Herman Van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso, are expected to press Obama on the issue of energy on Wednesday when they meet in Brussels.
De Gucht said it was in the United States' interest that Europe should become less reliant on energy from Russia. "That's why I think we should have an ambitious chapter on energy in the T-TIP," he said, referring to EU demands for a clear framework setting out U.S. commitments on gas exports.
Beyond Ukraine, other difficult issues include how to open up to each other's markets, removing barriers to business and customs duties that cost companies billions of dollars each year, particularly automakers such as Ford, General Motors and Volkswagen.
Washington and Brussels are at odds over an initial exchange of offers to open up markets and cut tariffs, with each saying the other has not been ambitious enough.
"We reaffirm that the goal of negotiations should be elimination of all tariffs. We would welcome Europe reaffirming that goal," Froman said.
07:10 | 0 comments

NATO warns of 'very sizeable, very ready' Russian force

NATO's top military commander said on Sunday that Russia had a large force on Ukraine's eastern border and said he was worried it could pose a threat to Moldova's separatist Transdniestria region.
Lonely Planet Images | Getty
Moldova, Eastern Europe, including breakaway region of Trans-Dniester
NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Air Force General PhilipBreedlove, voiced concern about Moscow using a tactic of snap military exercises to prepare its forces for possible rapid incursions into a neighboring state, as it had done in the case of Ukraine's Crimea region.
Russia launched a new military exercise, involving 8,500 artillery men, nearUkraine's border 10 days ago.
"The (Russian) force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizeable and very, very ready," Breedlove told an event held by the German Marshall Fund think-tank.
The president of ex-Soviet Moldova warned Russia last Tuesday againstconsidering any move to annex Transdniestria, which lies on Ukraine's westernborder, in the same way that it has taken control of Crimea.
The speaker of Transdniestria's separatist parliament had urged Russia earlier to incorporate his mainly Russian-speaking region. Transdniestria split away from Moldova in 1990, one year before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, amid fears that Moldova would shortly merge with neighboring Romania, whose language and culture it broadly shares.
Breedlove said NATO was very concerned about the threat to Transdniestria which he said, in Russia's view, was the "next place where Russian-speaking people may need to be incorporated."
"There is absolutely sufficient (Russian) force postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to Transdniestria if the decision was made to do that and that is very worrisome."
NATO had tried to make Russia a partner but "now it is very clear that Russia is acting much more like an adversary than a partner," he said.
07:00 | 0 comments

NATO warns of 'very sizeable, very ready' Russian force

NATO's top military commander said on Sunday that Russia had a large force on Ukraine's eastern border and said he was worried it could pose a threat to Moldova's separatist Transdniestria region.
Lonely Planet Images | Getty
Moldova, Eastern Europe, including breakaway region of Trans-Dniester
NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Air Force General PhilipBreedlove, voiced concern about Moscow using a tactic of snap military exercises to prepare its forces for possible rapid incursions into a neighboring state, as it had done in the case of Ukraine's Crimea region.
Russia launched a new military exercise, involving 8,500 artillery men, nearUkraine's border 10 days ago.
"The (Russian) force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizeable and very, very ready," Breedlove told an event held by the German Marshall Fund think-tank.
The president of ex-Soviet Moldova warned Russia last Tuesday againstconsidering any move to annex Transdniestria, which lies on Ukraine's westernborder, in the same way that it has taken control of Crimea.
The speaker of Transdniestria's separatist parliament had urged Russia earlier to incorporate his mainly Russian-speaking region. Transdniestria split away from Moldova in 1990, one year before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, amid fears that Moldova would shortly merge with neighboring Romania, whose language and culture it broadly shares.
Breedlove said NATO was very concerned about the threat to Transdniestria which he said, in Russia's view, was the "next place where Russian-speaking people may need to be incorporated."
"There is absolutely sufficient (Russian) force postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to Transdniestria if the decision was made to do that and that is very worrisome."
NATO had tried to make Russia a partner but "now it is very clear that Russia is acting much more like an adversary than a partner," he said.
07:00 | 0 comments

Obama Shows Europe How to Make Putin Pay

For the first time since Russian President Vladimir Putin began his adventure in Crimea, the West has given him something to think about: The U.S. has put strong sanctions on some of his closest aides, friends and business partners. Would that the same could be said of the European Union.
The EU has more power to threaten Russia’s economy and the wealth of its leaders, but today failed to follow the U.S. lead. EU-wide sanctions require unanimity among 28 countries. The lowest common denominator at the bloc’s summit in Brussels was inadequate to the gravity of Putin’s action: the first annexation of territory in Europe since 1945.
The additions that President Barack Obama made to the U.S. sanctions list yesterday won’t push Putin to hand back Crimea -- nothing short of brute force could achieve that now. But by sanctioning Putin’s business allies and Bank Rossiya, which many Russians see as a savings bank for the president and his friends, Obama is extracting a price that Russia can't easily shrug off. The move lends credibility, as well, to his threat that if Putin goes further, the U.S. is willing to hit Russia’s economy harder.
The new list isn’t just about threatening the wealth of Kremlin allies, such as Gennady Timchenko, the 45 percent owner of the world’s fourth largest oil trading group, Gunvor Group Ltd. The Treasury document also implicates Putin in corruption, alleging that he "has investments in Gunvor and may have access to Gunvor funds." The warning that the U.S. can release more damaging information on Putin’s finances is clear.
EU leaders added a further 12 names to their sanctions list, but these don't include the Kremlin’s bankers and business fronts. The summit also promised to reduce energy dependency on Russia -- a good idea-- but the plan it announced is too vague to make a difference.
Europe's threat of further and more punitive sanctions still lacks credibility. This matters because Putin's recent assurances that he has no designs on the rest of Ukraine so long as Russian speakers are left in peace should be discounted. Russian forces continue to conduct exercises on Ukraine’s eastern border; pro-Russian self-defense forces are blocking Ukraine’s military from taking up defensive positions on the other side; and activists in Donetsk and other cities have kept their tents on the central squares, waiting for what comes next.
Willing European governments should act in concert with others, without striving for unanimity. France should cancel its $1.9 billion contract to sell two helicopter ships to Russia. (Allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should buy them instead.) Ukraine has asked for defense and communications equipment; Europe should supply it. And Europe should kill Russia’s proposed South Stream natural gas pipeline project, whose purpose was to bypass Ukraine and increase EU dependence on Russian gas.
The U.K. has a particular responsibility. Its financial regulators should look closely at Russian assets in London. Much of the Russian money flowing through the City is legitimate, but some of it is money laundering. Sanctions aren’t required, just zeal to enforce existing law.
The point is to make Putin understand that his seizure of Crimea has wrecked Russia's relationship with its most important trading partners -- not just to his country's cost, but also to his own and that of his cronies. And the corollary must be made equally clear: If he goes further, so will the West.
02:28 | 0 comments

How Europe Can Ease Its Way to Inflation Goals


Inflation in the euro area fell to 0.7 percent in February, down a notch from January's 0.8 percent. The news, announced this week, should have attracted more attention. The European Central Bank is persistently failing to meet its goal of keeping inflation "below, but close to, 2 percent." It has the means to do something about this, but has decided not to act.
The situation demands further monetary easing -- but with interest rates already very low, that presents a problem.
The ECB can't easily adoptquantitative easing, which the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have used to good effect, because its legal power to do so is disputed. Germany's Constitutional Court referred the legality of Outright Monetary Transactions -- a bond-buying program announced by the ECB but never deployed -- to the European Court of Justice earlier this year, saying it believed the program to be illegal and wanted clarification from the higher court.
OMT is concerned with financial stability not monetary stimulus. But if OMT is illegal, then Fed-style QE would be too. Do these concerns over legality make sense?
Paul de Grauwe of the London School of Economics disputes it. He says the German court made two main arguments, both flawed.
First, according to the court, OMT overrides investors' judgments about the right prices for distressed government bonds, and that's not "monetary policy," which the ECB is confined to, under the terms of its mandate. Second, OMT (like QE) exposes the central bank to the risk of losses that would ultimately be borne by taxpayers. This makes OMT a kind of fiscal policy -- so again the ECB would be exceeding its powers.
De Grauwe says the first point is mistaken because the court is assuming that investors, left to themselves, would price bonds correctly. In fact, they don't, and the central bank is acting properly if it intervenes to fix errors. On the second point, he acknowledges the risk of defaults that could deplete the central bank's equity. But this isn't a problem, he says, because central banks, unlike governments, can't ever default. They can print money, so they don't actually need any equity.
Europe needs OMT to be available, so it would be good if the European Court of Justice accepted De Grauwe's arguments. Trouble is, his arguments aren't that convincing.
The fact that the central bank might have good reasons to buy distressed bonds doesn't bring such transactions within the realm of orthodox monetary policy: If that's the test the law imposes, De Grauwe's first argument isn't much help. And his second argument -- that central banks needn't worry about sustaining losses -- is too far-reaching. That view would justify plain vanilla direct financing of governments, where the central bank covers the government's budget deficit and simply forgives the loans it makes in the process. Forbidding that practice was the whole point of the law defining the ECB's powers.
The best way to legalize OMT and QE would be to give the ECB a new mandate -- one that explicitly allows unorthodox monetary policy in emergencies. But that won't happen, because the EU finds it harder to fix broken treaties than to adopt them in the first place. The European court, with luck, will fudge the issue, employing lawyerly ingenuity to justify ignoring the bad law as it stands. If that doesn't happen either, there's one more way to go.
Harvard's Jeffrey Frankel tells Mario Draghi, the ECB's president, you can do QE legally by buying U.S. bonds rather than the debts of EU governments. This doesn't rescue OMT, because that program has to buy EU debt. But ECB purchases of U.S. debt would be a way to undertake QE within the bounds of the mandate. And right now, the EU may need QE more than it needs OMT, because the threat of deflation looms larger than the danger of government defaults.
QE done this way usually goes by another name: unsterilized foreign-exchange intervention. It's certainly within the ECB's remit. It would ease monetary conditions in Europe both by expanding the money supply and by driving down the value of the euro. As Frankel says:
The strength of the euro has held up remarkably during the four years of crisis. Indeed the currency appreciated further when the ECB declined to undertake any monetary stimulus at its March 6 meeting. The euro could afford to weaken substantially. Even Germans might warm up to easy money if it meant more exports rather than less. ...
As the Fed tapers back on its purchases of US treasury securities, it is a perfect time for the ECB to step in and buy some itself.
02:28 | 0 comments

Obama Shows Europe How to Make Putin Pay

For the first time since Russian President Vladimir Putin began his adventure in Crimea, the West has given him something to think about: The U.S. has put strong sanctions on some of his closest aides, friends and business partners. Would that the same could be said of the European Union.
The EU has more power to threaten Russia’s economy and the wealth of its leaders, but today failed to follow the U.S. lead. EU-wide sanctions require unanimity among 28 countries. The lowest common denominator at the bloc’s summit in Brussels was inadequate to the gravity of Putin’s action: the first annexation of territory in Europe since 1945.
The additions that President Barack Obama made to the U.S. sanctions list yesterday won’t push Putin to hand back Crimea -- nothing short of brute force could achieve that now. But by sanctioning Putin’s business allies and Bank Rossiya, which many Russians see as a savings bank for the president and his friends, Obama is extracting a price that Russia can't easily shrug off. The move lends credibility, as well, to his threat that if Putin goes further, the U.S. is willing to hit Russia’s economy harder.
The new list isn’t just about threatening the wealth of Kremlin allies, such as Gennady Timchenko, the 45 percent owner of the world’s fourth largest oil trading group, Gunvor Group Ltd. The Treasury document also implicates Putin in corruption, alleging that he "has investments in Gunvor and may have access to Gunvor funds." The warning that the U.S. can release more damaging information on Putin’s finances is clear.
EU leaders added a further 12 names to their sanctions list, but these don't include the Kremlin’s bankers and business fronts. The summit also promised to reduce energy dependency on Russia -- a good idea-- but the plan it announced is too vague to make a difference.
Europe's threat of further and more punitive sanctions still lacks credibility. This matters because Putin's recent assurances that he has no designs on the rest of Ukraine so long as Russian speakers are left in peace should be discounted. Russian forces continue to conduct exercises on Ukraine’s eastern border; pro-Russian self-defense forces are blocking Ukraine’s military from taking up defensive positions on the other side; and activists in Donetsk and other cities have kept their tents on the central squares, waiting for what comes next.
Willing European governments should act in concert with others, without striving for unanimity. France should cancel its $1.9 billion contract to sell two helicopter ships to Russia. (Allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should buy them instead.) Ukraine has asked for defense and communications equipment; Europe should supply it. And Europe should kill Russia’s proposed South Stream natural gas pipeline project, whose purpose was to bypass Ukraine and increase EU dependence on Russian gas.
The U.K. has a particular responsibility. Its financial regulators should look closely at Russian assets in London. Much of the Russian money flowing through the City is legitimate, but some of it is money laundering. Sanctions aren’t required, just zeal to enforce existing law.
The point is to make Putin understand that his seizure of Crimea has wrecked Russia's relationship with its most important trading partners -- not just to his country's cost, but also to his own and that of his cronies. And the corollary must be made equally clear: If he goes further, so will the West.
02:28 | 0 comments

How Europe Can Ease Its Way to Inflation Goals


Inflation in the euro area fell to 0.7 percent in February, down a notch from January's 0.8 percent. The news, announced this week, should have attracted more attention. The European Central Bank is persistently failing to meet its goal of keeping inflation "below, but close to, 2 percent." It has the means to do something about this, but has decided not to act.
The situation demands further monetary easing -- but with interest rates already very low, that presents a problem.
The ECB can't easily adoptquantitative easing, which the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have used to good effect, because its legal power to do so is disputed. Germany's Constitutional Court referred the legality of Outright Monetary Transactions -- a bond-buying program announced by the ECB but never deployed -- to the European Court of Justice earlier this year, saying it believed the program to be illegal and wanted clarification from the higher court.
OMT is concerned with financial stability not monetary stimulus. But if OMT is illegal, then Fed-style QE would be too. Do these concerns over legality make sense?
Paul de Grauwe of the London School of Economics disputes it. He says the German court made two main arguments, both flawed.
First, according to the court, OMT overrides investors' judgments about the right prices for distressed government bonds, and that's not "monetary policy," which the ECB is confined to, under the terms of its mandate. Second, OMT (like QE) exposes the central bank to the risk of losses that would ultimately be borne by taxpayers. This makes OMT a kind of fiscal policy -- so again the ECB would be exceeding its powers.
De Grauwe says the first point is mistaken because the court is assuming that investors, left to themselves, would price bonds correctly. In fact, they don't, and the central bank is acting properly if it intervenes to fix errors. On the second point, he acknowledges the risk of defaults that could deplete the central bank's equity. But this isn't a problem, he says, because central banks, unlike governments, can't ever default. They can print money, so they don't actually need any equity.
Europe needs OMT to be available, so it would be good if the European Court of Justice accepted De Grauwe's arguments. Trouble is, his arguments aren't that convincing.
The fact that the central bank might have good reasons to buy distressed bonds doesn't bring such transactions within the realm of orthodox monetary policy: If that's the test the law imposes, De Grauwe's first argument isn't much help. And his second argument -- that central banks needn't worry about sustaining losses -- is too far-reaching. That view would justify plain vanilla direct financing of governments, where the central bank covers the government's budget deficit and simply forgives the loans it makes in the process. Forbidding that practice was the whole point of the law defining the ECB's powers.
The best way to legalize OMT and QE would be to give the ECB a new mandate -- one that explicitly allows unorthodox monetary policy in emergencies. But that won't happen, because the EU finds it harder to fix broken treaties than to adopt them in the first place. The European court, with luck, will fudge the issue, employing lawyerly ingenuity to justify ignoring the bad law as it stands. If that doesn't happen either, there's one more way to go.
Harvard's Jeffrey Frankel tells Mario Draghi, the ECB's president, you can do QE legally by buying U.S. bonds rather than the debts of EU governments. This doesn't rescue OMT, because that program has to buy EU debt. But ECB purchases of U.S. debt would be a way to undertake QE within the bounds of the mandate. And right now, the EU may need QE more than it needs OMT, because the threat of deflation looms larger than the danger of government defaults.
QE done this way usually goes by another name: unsterilized foreign-exchange intervention. It's certainly within the ECB's remit. It would ease monetary conditions in Europe both by expanding the money supply and by driving down the value of the euro. As Frankel says:
The strength of the euro has held up remarkably during the four years of crisis. Indeed the currency appreciated further when the ECB declined to undertake any monetary stimulus at its March 6 meeting. The euro could afford to weaken substantially. Even Germans might warm up to easy money if it meant more exports rather than less. ...
As the Fed tapers back on its purchases of US treasury securities, it is a perfect time for the ECB to step in and buy some itself.
02:28 | 0 comments

Obama’s Europe Trip Shifts to Mobilizing Ukraine Response


U.S. President Barack Obama is turning a European trip originally focused on nuclear security and trade into a mission to mobilize international opposition to Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
White House National Security AdviserSusan Rice said yesterday that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s moves to claim Crimea from Ukraine have prompted the U.S. and Europe to reevaluate their post-Cold War relationship with Russia.
“What will be clear for the entire world to see is that Russia is increasingly isolated,” Rice said at a White House briefing on week-long trip, which begins March 24 in the Netherlands. The U.S. is leading the charge to impose costs on Russia “for its aggression against Ukraine.”
Russia’s incursion into Ukraine has become the central issue for Obama as he enters into a series of discussions with leaders gathering for a nuclear security summit and the annual U.S.-European Union meeting. While there, Obama also will meet with other leaders of the Group of Seven nations, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. allies in Asia.
It will be the first broad gathering of world leaders since Russia moved into the Crimean region. Russia completed its annexation of Crimea yesterday with Putin signing legislation in Moscow to absorb the Black Sea peninsula and its port, Sevastopol, from Ukraine.

Other Stops

The situation also is overshadowing other stops on Obama’s itinerary: his first meeting with Pope Francis at the Vatican and a visit to Saudi Arabia to discuss Syria, Iran and Mideast peace talks.
Russia is unlikely to retreat from its annexation of Crimea so the primary goal of Obama’s meetings in Europe is to reassure allies on the periphery of Russia such as Poland and the Baltic states and send Putin “a clear deterrent message,” said Robert Litwak, director of International Security Studies at the Wilson Center in Washington.
The U.S. and EU have slapped financial sanctions on Russian officials and Putin allies to pressure Russia. Obama and European leaders have signaled that Russia may face further repercussions if it doesn’t stop what they see as destabilizing actions in Ukraine.
“We’re already quite closely coordinated with our European partners,” Rice said.

Possible Sanctions

Obama signed a new executive order on March 20 authorizing though not implementing economic sanctions affecting parts of the Russian economy. They would target financial services, energy, metals and mining, defense and engineering. Those measures carry the risk of squeezing the economies of the U.S. and EU because they would hit multinational companies that do business in Russia.
The turmoil already has had an impact in Russia. Yesterday, the country’s benchmark Micex Index (INDEXCF) of stocks fell 1 percent, the most among emerging markets, to 1,307.34 by the close, and yield on government bonds due February 2027 jumped 12 basis points, the most in a week, to 9.42 percent. The ruble has tumbled 9.3 percent against the dollar this year, the worst among 24 emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg after Argentina’s peso.
Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution in Washington who was deputy secretary of state in President Bill Clinton’s administration, said Putin’s “appetite is unsated” by seizing Crimea and it’s too soon to say whether the sanctions will be enough to stop him from going further.

Russian Behavior

“It certainly hasn’t changed Russian behavior and it’s not going to change Putin’s own predilections,” Talbot said on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt” airing this weekend.
The massing of Russian troops near Ukraine’s borders have raised concerns that Putin may push further into the second most populous former Soviet republic.
Rice said the U.S. views with “skepticism” Russia’s assertion that movements of its military on the borders of Ukraine were simply training exercises.
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the U.S. and EU have supported Russia’s integration into the global economy, such as backing its entry into the World Trade Organization.
“But that was predicated on an expectation that Russia would play by the rules of the road, the economic and security rules of the road, international law,” Rice said. “What we have seen in Ukraine is obviously a very egregious departure from that.”

G-8 Debate

Rice alluded to discussions about suspending Russia from the Group of Eight, saying members will “consider the optimum disposition of the G-8/G-7 mechanism going forward in light of recent developments.”
Russia still will take part in the nuclear security conference in The Hague. The summit -- the first was held in Washington in 2010 -- is aimed at working to prevent the spread of nuclear material and the spread of weapons.
While Obama and other heads of state will be attending, Putin is staying home. Russia will be represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Rice said that decision was made before the confrontation over Ukraine.
“We have every interest in continuing to cooperate with Russia and other countries, even where we have differences with them on other issues, on the issue of nuclear security,” Rice said.
02:10 | 0 comments

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