EUR/USD Outlook for the near term future 2014

"EUR/USD seemed to satisfy the consensus early in the new year, settling into a low intensity decay from 1.38 to sub-1.35 in Jan. However, price action in Feb has seen those losses completely unwound. There are four key near term (inter-related) themes for EUR/USD: 1) the complexion of the US data; 2) the complexion of the Eurozone data; 3) the prospects for ECB easing; and 4) developments in the periphery. We assess that on balance the positives outweigh the negatives. We quantify these forces with a simple fair value model and find EUR/USD equilibrium has jumped 1.2% in the last 2 weeks, the biggest 2 week rise in more than 6 months."

"We are predisposed to selling EUR/USD on strength since medium term headwinds holding back the US (fiscal policy and private sector deleveraging) seem less potent than in the Eurozone. However, in the short term the aforementioned factors seem more likely to evolve in favour of yet higher EUR levels. We could see a run at the late 2013 1.3895 highs before all is said and done. 1.40 may not be an impossible target. However, at these levels we would consider EUR/USD overdone and would establish shorts."

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17:44 | 0 comments

4 Types Of Indicators FX Traders Must Know

By Jay Kaeppel on November 10, 2010

Filed Under: Bollinger Bands, Forex Technical Analysis, Forex Trading 101, Forex Trading Strategies, MACD, ROC, RSI, Technical Analysis, Technical Indicators, Trend Trading

Many forex traders spend their time looking for that perfect moment to enter the markets or a telltale sign that screams "buy" or "sell". And while the search can be fascinating, the result is always the same. The truth is, there is no one way to trade the forex markets. As a result, successful traders must learn that there are a variety of indicators that can help to determine the best time to buy or sell a forex cross rate. 

Here are four different market indicators that most successful forex traders rely upon.

Indicator No.1: A Trend-Following Tool

It is possible to make money using a countertrend approach to trading. However, for most traders the easier approach is to recognize the direction of the major trend and attempt to profit by trading in the trend's direction. This is where trend-following tools come into play. Many people misunderstand the purpose of trend-following tools and try to use them as separate trading systems. While this is possible, the real purpose of a trend-following tool is to suggest whether you should be looking to enter a long position or a short position. So let's consider one of the simplest trend-following methods – the moving average crossover.

A simple moving average represents the average closing price over the number of days in question. To elaborate, let's look at two simple examples – one longer term, one shorter term. (For related information on moving averages, see Exploring The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average.)

Figure 1 displays the 50-day/200-day moving average crossover for the euro/yen cross. The theory here is that the trend is favorable when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day average and unfavorable when the 50-day is below the 200-day. As the chart shows, this combination does a good job of identifying the major trend of the market - at least most of the time. However, no matter what moving average combination you choose to use, there will be whipsaws. 

Figure 1: The euro/yen with 50-day and 200-day moving averages

Source: ProfitSource

Figure 2 shows a different combination – the 10-day/30-day crossover. The advantage of this combination is that it will react more quickly to changes in price trends than the previous pair. The disadvantage is that it will also be more susceptible to whipsaws than the longer term 50-day/200-day crossover. 

Figure 2: The euro/yen with 10-day and 30-day moving averages

Source: ProfitSource

Many investors will proclaim a particular combination to be the best, but the reality is, there is no "best" moving average combination. In the end, forex traders will benefit most by deciding what combination (or combinations) fits best with their time frames. From there, the trend - as shown by these indicators - should be used to tell traders if they should trade long or trade short; it should not be relied on to time entries and exits. (For additional information, check out Forex: Should You Be Trading Trend Or Range?)

Indicator No.2: A Trend-Confirmation Tool

Now we have a trend-following tool to tell us whether the major trend of a given currency pair is up or down. But how reliable is that indicator? As mentioned earlier, trend-following tools are prone to being whipsawed. So it would be nice to have a way to gauge whether the current trend-following indicator is correct or not. For this, we will employ a trend-confirmation tool. Much like a trend-following tool, a trend-confirmation tool may or may not be intended to generate specific buy and sell signals. Instead, we are looking to see if the trend-following tool and the trend-confirmation tool agree. 

In essence, if both the trend-following tool and the trend-confirmation tool are bullish, then a trader can more confidently consider taking a long trade in the currency pair in question. Likewise, if both are bearish, then the trader can focus on finding an opportunity to sell short the pair in question. 

One of the most popular – and useful – trend confirmation tools is known as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD). This indicator first measures the difference between two exponentially smoothed moving averages. This difference is then smoothed and compared to a moving average of its own. When the current smoothed average is above its own moving average, then the histogram at the bottom of Figure 3 is positive and an uptrend is confirmed. On the flip side, when the current smoothed average is below its moving average, then the histogram at the bottom of Figure 3 is negative and a downtrend is confirmed. (Learn more about the MACD in A Primer On The MACD.) 

Figure 3: Euro/yen cross with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and MACD indicator

Source: ProfitSource

In essence, when the trend-following moving average combination is bearish (short-term average below long-term average) and the MACD histogram is negative, then we have a confirmed downtrend. When both are positive, then we have a confirmed uptrend.

At the bottom of Figure 4 we see another trend-confirmation tool that might be considered in addition to (or in place of) MACD. It is the rate of change indicator (ROC). As displayed in Figure 4, the red line measures today's closing price divided by the closing price 28 trading days ago. Readings above 1.00 indicate that the price is higher today than it was 28 days ago and vice versa. The blue line represents a 28-day moving average of the daily ROC readings. Here, if the red line is above the blue line, then the ROC is confirming an uptrend. If the red line is below the blue line, then we have a confirmed downtrend. (For more on the ROC indicator, refer to Measure Momentum Change With ROC.)

Note in Figure 4 that the sharp price declines experienced by the euro/yen cross from mid-January to mid-February, late April through May and during the second half of August were each accompanied by:

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• The 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average
  
  
• A negative MACD histogram 
  
  

A bearish configuration for the ROC indicator (red line below blue) 

Figure 4: Euro/yen cross with MACD and rate-of-change trend confirmation indicators

Source: ProfitSource.com

Indicator No.3: An Overbought/Oversold Tool

While traders are typically well advised to trade in the direction of the major trend, one must still decide whether he or she is more comfortable jumping in as soon as a clear trend is established or after a pullback occurs. In other words, if the trend is determined to be bullish, the choice becomes whether to buy into strength or buy into weakness. If you decide to get in as quickly as possible, you can consider entering a trade as soon as an uptrend or downtrend is confirmed. On the other hand, you could wait for a pullback within the larger overall primary trend in the hope that this offers a lower risk opportunity. For this, a trader will rely on an overbought/oversold indicator. 

There are many indicators that can fit this bill. However, one that is useful from a trading standpoint is the three-day relative strength index, or three-day RSI for short. This indicator calculates the cumulative sum of up days and down days over the window period and calculates a value that can range from zero to 100. If all of the price action is to the upside, the indicator will approach 100; if all of the price action is to the downside, then the indicator will approach zero. A reading of 50 is considered neutral. (More on the RSI can be found in Relative Strength Index Helps Make The Right Decisions.)

Figure 5 displays the three-day RSI for the euro/yen cross. Generally speaking, a trader looking to enter on pullbacks would consider going long if the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day and the three-day RSI drops below a certain trigger level, such as 20, which would indicate an oversold position. Conversely, the trader might consider entering a short position if the 50-day is below the 200-day and the three-day RSI rises above a certain level, such as 80, which would indicate an overbought position. Different traders may prefer using different trigger levels.

Figure 5: Euro/yen cross with three-day RSI overbought/oversold indicator

Source: ProfitSource

Indicator No.4: A Profit-Taking Tool

The last type of indicator that a forex trader needs is something to help determine when to take a profit on a winning trade. Here too, there are many choices available. In fact, the three-day RSI can also fit into this category. In other words, a trader holding a long position might consider taking some profits if the three-day RSI rises to a high level of 80 or more. Conversely, a trader holding a short position might consider taking some profit if the three-day RSI declines to a low level, such as 20 or less. 

Another useful profit-taking tool is a popular indicator known as Bollinger Bands®. This tool adds and subtracts the standard deviation of price data changes over a period from the average closing price over that same time frame to create trading "bands". While many traders attempt to use Bollinger Bands® to time the entry of trades, they may be even more useful as a profit-taking tool. 

Figure 6 displays the euro/yen cross with 20-day Bollinger Bands® overlaying the daily price data. A trader holding a long position might consider taking some profits if the price reaches the upper band, and a trader holding a short position might consider taking some profits if the price reaches the lower band. (Refer to The Basics Of Bollinger Bands® for more information on this tool.)

Figure 6: Euro/Yen cross with Bollinger Bands®

Source: ProfitSource

A final profit-taking tool would be a "trailing stop." Trailing stops are typically used as a method to give a trade the potential to let profits run, while also attempting to avoid losing any accumulated profit. There are many ways to arrive at a trailing stop. Figure 7 illustrates just one of these ways. 

The trade shown in Figure 7 assumes that a short trade was entered in the forex market for the euro/yen on January 1, 2010. Each day the average true range over the past three trading days is multiplied by five and used to calculate a trailing stop price that can only move sideways or lower (for a short trade, or sideways or higher for a long trade).

Figure 7: Euro/yen cross with a trailing stop

The Bottom Line

If you are hesitant to get into the forex market and are waiting for an obvious entry point, you may find yourself sitting on the sidelines for a long while. By learning a variety of forex indicators, you can determine suitable strategies for choosing profitable times to back a given currency pair. Also, continued monitoring of these indicators will give strong signals that can point you toward a buy or sell signal. As with any investment, strong analysis will minimize potential risks.

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00:23 | 0 comments

Janet Yellen’s testimony, the continuity of Bernanke’s monetary policy

Another week goes by leaving markets in optimistic mode this time, amid Janet Yellen’s testimony in front of the Senate guaranteed the continuity of Bernanke’s monetary policy. She add nothing new to what markets already know, remarking taper will continue as long as supported by data, and rates will remain low for an extended period despite the 6.5% unemployment threshold. But data has been far from satisfying lately, with readings below expectations in employment, trade balance, manufacturing indexes and retail sales among others. Some blame it on the polar wave extending over the north hemisphere this winter, but the fact is that numbers don’t support grow: economic growth stalled in Q1 in the US, and the FED may chose to stay sidelined in its upcoming March meeting. 

Nevertheless, stocks market took a big breath and quickly recovered the ground lost over the last few weeks, with the S&P barely 20 points below its record high this Friday. The movement generated some risk appetite across the forex board, maintaining the greenback in selling mode for most of the week: Pound trades at fresh multi year highs, while the Euro battles to overcome the 1.3700 level. 

For the upcoming week, main attention will center in the UK, with the economy releasing employment and inflation figures, and the Minutes of latest BOE’s meeting. Data has been pretty encouraging lately and if inflation remains contained and unemployment rate improves beyond the current 7.1%, Pound may continue surging to fresh highs against weakened greenback, while gather momentum against other rivals such as JPY and EUR. 

In the US, beside another  possible Yellen testimony, inflation on Thursday will be key: latest weak readings there had diminished even further chances of more tapering and therefore, rate rises in the dark future: a strong reading there may save the USD from its current bearish trend, particularly against not that strong EUR, and JPY.

Japan may also gather some attention, with GDP readings and BOJ monthly meeting, albeit nothing new is expected from the Central Bank. GDP quarterly readingson the other hand are expected with a nice improvement, which may lead to a strong USD/JPY fall.

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18:11 | 0 comments

German Constitutional Court decided to refer the decision on the ECB's OMT program to the European Court of Justice

Not a good day for Europe, this Friday: first, the German Constitutional Court decided to refer the decision on the ECB's OMT program to the European Court of Justice, saying that there are substantial reasons to suggest the Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT) exceeded the ECB's mandate and thus infringes the powers of the Member States. Then German industrial output unexpectedly fell in December, pointing for a not that strong growth in the country as expected.

And to top it all, US employment readings missed expectations, printing a pretty poor 113K, above December 74K but well below the expected 180K. Initial market reaction was dollar bearish, and the EUR/USD managed to extend its advance to a fresh weekly high of 1.3642, albeit quickly retraced back to the 1.3600 level, consolidating nearby as the day looms. 

Week ends with the pair posting some mild gains, mostly thanks to Mr. Draghi and ECB’s optimistic economic outlook: deflation risk is well acknowledged but contained, and the Bank has at its disposable several available tools that will use if needed. But a closer look at the daily chart, will show the pair posted a lower low for the year around 1.3470, while to the upside the pair halted well fellow past week high of 1.3715; 20 SMA maintains a pretty bearish slope, and price holds below it, with indicators standing in neutral territory. All of this puts the pressure to the downside, at least from the technical point of view, but there’s not much of a confirmation right now: price needs to break below 1.3440 static support areas to extend its slide in the midterm, with 1.3550 now as immediate resistance. 

Sellers are still quite strong, first line around the 1.3610/30 area, and more around 1.3700, this last probable top for next week.

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18:07 | 0 comments

Introductory statement to the press conference of Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, 6 February 2014

Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,

Frankfurt am Main, 6 February 2014

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council.

Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Incoming information confirms that the moderate recovery of the euro area economy is proceeding in line with our previous assessment. At the same time, underlying price pressures in the euro area remain weak and monetary and credit dynamics are subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2%. As stated previously, we are now experiencing a prolonged period of low inflation, which will be followed by a gradual upward movement towards inflation rates below, but close to, 2% later on. Regarding the medium-term outlook for prices and growth, further information and analysis will become available in early March. Recent evidence fully confirms our decision to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy for as long as necessary, which will assist the gradual economic recovery in the euro area. We firmly reiterate our forward guidance. We continue to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on an overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness of the economy and subdued monetary dynamics. With regard to recent money market volatility and its potential impact on our monetary policy stance, we are monitoring developments closely and are ready to consider all available instruments. Overall, we remain firmly determined to maintain the high degree of monetary accommodation and to take further decisive action if required.

Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Following two quarters of positive real GDP growth, developments in recent data and surveys overall suggest that the moderate recovery continued in the last quarter of 2013. Looking ahead, our previous assessment of economic growth has been confirmed. Output in the euro area is expected to recover at a slow pace. In particular, some improvement in domestic demand should materialise, supported by the accommodative monetary policy stance, improving financing conditions and the progress made in fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. In addition, real incomes are supported by lower energy price inflation. Economic activity is also expected to benefit from a gradual strengthening of demand for euro area exports. At the same time, although unemployment in the euro area is stabilising, it remains high, and the necessary balance sheet adjustments in the public and the private sector will continue to weigh on the pace of the economic recovery.

The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. Developments in global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties, notably in emerging market economies, may have the potential to negatively affect economic conditions. Other downside risks include weaker than expected domestic demand and export growth and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries.

According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 0.7% in January 2014, after 0.8% in December. This decline was mainly due to energy price developments. At the same time, the inflation rate in January 2014 was lower than generally expected . On the basis of current information and prevailing futures prices for energy, annual HICP inflation rates are expected to remain at around current levels in the coming months. Over the medium term, underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2%.

Both upside and downside risks to the outlook for price developments remain limited, and they continue to be broadly balanced over the medium term.

Turning to the monetary analysis, data for December 2013 confirm the assessment of subdued underlying growth in broad money (M3) and credit. Annual growth in M3 moderated to 1.0% in December, from 1.5% in November. Deposit outflows in December mirrored the strong sales of government and private sector securities by euro area MFIs, which, in part, could be related to adjustments by banks in anticipation of the ECB’s comprehensive assessment of banks’ balance sheets. These developments also affected annual growth in M1, which moderated to 5.8% in December but remained strong. As in previous months, the main factor supporting annual M3 growth was an increase in the MFI net external asset position, which continued to reflect the increased interest of international investors in euro area assets. The annual rate of change of loans to the private sector continued to contract. The annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) stood at 0.3% in December, broadly unchanged since the beginning of 2013. The annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) was -2.9% in December, after -3.1% in November. The January 2014 bank lending survey provides indications of some further stabilisation in credit conditions for firms and households and a smaller net decline in loan demand by enterprises. Overall, weak loan dynamics for non-financial corporations continue to reflect their lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets.

Since the summer of 2012 substantial progress has been made in improving the funding situation of banks. In order to ensure an adequate transmission of monetary policy to the financing conditions in euro area countries, it is essential that the fragmentation of euro area credit markets declines further and that the resilience of banks is strengthened where needed. This is the objective of the ECB’s comprehensive assessment, while the timely implementation of additional steps to establish a banking union will further help to restore confidence in the financial system.

To sum up, the economic analysis confirms our expectation of a prolonged period of low inflation, to be followed by a gradual upward movement towards inflation rates below, but close to, 2% later on. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms the picture of subdued underlying price pressures in the euro area over the medium term.

As regards fiscal policies, euro area countries should not unravel past consolidation efforts and should put high government debt on a downward trajectory over the medium term. Fiscal strategies should be in line with the Stability and Growth Pact and should ensure a growth-friendly composition of consolidation which combines improving the quality and efficiency of public services with minimising distortionary effects of taxation. When accompanied by the decisive implementation of structural reforms, these strategies will further support the still fragile economic recovery. Governments must therefore continue with product and labour market reforms. These reforms will help to enhance the euro area’s growth potential and reduce the high unemployment rates in many countries.

We are now at your disposal for questions.

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06:39 | 0 comments

Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of England 06 Feb 14

The Bank’s monetary policy objective is to deliver price stability – low inflation – and, subject to that, to support the Government’s economic objectives including those for growth and employment. Price stability is defined by the Government’s inflation target of 2%. The remit recognises the role of price stability in achieving economic stability more generally, and in providing the right conditions for sustainable growth in output and employment. The Government's inflation target is announced each year by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the annual Budget statement.

The 1998 Bank of England Act made the Bank independent to set interest rates. The Bank is accountable to parliament and the wider public. The legislation provides that if, in extreme circumstances, the national interest demands it, the Government has the power to give instructions to the Bank on interest rates for a limited period.

The inflation target

The inflation target of 2% is expressed in terms of an annual rate of inflation based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). The remit is not to achieve the lowest possible inflation rate. Inflation below the target of 2% is judged to be just as bad as inflation above the target. The inflation target is therefore symmetrical.

If the target is missed by more than 1 percentage point on either side – i.e. if the annual rate of CPI inflation is more than 3% or less than 1% – the Governor of the Bank must write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining the reasons why inflation has increased or fallen to such an extent and what the Bank proposes to do to ensure inflation comes back to the target.

A target of 2% does not mean that inflation will be held at this rate constantly. That would be neither possible nor desirable. Interest rates would be changing all the time, and by large amounts, causing unnecessary uncertainty and volatility in the economy. Even then it would not be possible to keep inflation at 2% in each and every month. Instead, the MPC’s aim is to set interest rates so that inflation can be brought back to target within a reasonable time period without creating undue instability in the economy.

The Monetary Policy Committee

The Bank seeks to meet the inflation target by setting an interest rate. The level of interest rates is decided by a special committee – the Monetary Policy Committee. The MPC consists of nine members – five from the Bank of England and four external members appointed by the Chancellor. It is chaired by the Governor of the Bank of England. The MPC meets monthly for a two-day meeting, usually on the Wednesday and Thursday after the first Monday of each month. Decisions are made by a vote of the Committee on a one-person one-vote basis.

Communications

The interest rate decision is announced at 12 noon on the second day. The minutes of the meetings, including a record of the vote, are published on the Wednesday of the second week after the meeting takes place. Each quarter, the Bank publishes its Inflation Report, which provides a detailed analysis of economic conditions and the prospects for economic growth and inflation agreed by the MPC. The Bank also publishes other material to increase awareness and understanding of its monetary policy function.

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00:14 | 0 comments

Latvia joined the euro area on 1 January 2014

Latvia joined the euro area on 1 January 2014. On that date the euro replaced the lats at the fixed exchange rate of €1 = LVL 0.702804. Following a two-week period when both currencies were in circulation, the lats ceased to be legal tender on 15 January 2014.

Exchanging Latvian lats

Lats can be exchanged at 302 post offices in Latvia at the fixed exchange rate, free of charge, until 31 March 2014. Banks will do the same until 30 June 2014.

Latvijas Banka will also exchange Latvian lats banknotes and coins at the fixed exchange rate in unlimited amounts for an indefinite period. This service is free of charge.

Other euro area national central banks (NCBs) will exchange Latvian lats banknotes, free of charge, from 1 January to 28 February 2014. The amount is limited to €1000 for any given party/transaction on any one day.

The European Central Bank (ECB) and Latvijas Banka have prepared a communication campaign for Latvia. It includes:

the production and distribution of publications on euro banknotes and coins and the cash changeover;

two short videos in English, Latvian and Russian on the cash changeover and how to check euro banknotes and coins;

• the euro exhibition in Riga at the Dailes Theatre (Brīvības iela 75, LV-1001, Rīga) from 25 October until 13 December 2013;
• a high-level Euro Conference on 12 September 2013.

Let's join forces: the Partnership Programme

The Partnership Programme provides communication materials to businesses and other organisations which are interested in passing on information about euro banknotes and coins in Latvia.

Latvijas Banka and the European Central Bank invite you to join forces with them to spread the euro “message”. As a partner, you will have access to information on the euro that you can pass on to your customers, business associates and employees. It will ensure that all your stakeholders have accurate information from a reliable source in good time.

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19:41 | 0 comments